Quantum breakthrough or just another step? Quantum computing accuracy records and their real-world significance

🌐 🇵🇱 Polski · 🇬🇧 EN

Over the past twelve months, the world has been abuzz with reports of new records in the field of quantum computing. IBM, Google, and Quantinuum have announced achievements that are being touted as a "breakthrough" in quantum computing accuracy. But are these reports truly revolutionary, or are they merely another step on a long journey? And what implications might they have for the future of cryptography, chemistry, or artificial intelligence?

Futurystyczny wizerunek komputera kwantowego z świecącymi obwodami kubitów i holograficznymi wyświetlaczami wzorów matematycznych — Illustration: The future of quantum computing in an artistic vision

What exactly are "quantum breakthroughs" and why is there so much talk about them?

For several years, the quantum technology market has been flooded with press releases promising a "revolution," a "breakthrough," or "unprecedented achievements." Meanwhile, the reality is more complex. Unlike classical computers, quantum computers rely on the principles of quantum mechanics, allowing them to perform certain calculations much faster than traditional machines. However, their potential depends on several key parameters: the number of qubits (quantum equivalents of bits), coherence time (how long a qubit maintains its state), operation accuracy, and the effectiveness of error correction.

Specific records have been set in recent months, but their significance must be considered in the context of their actual utility. Here is what really happened:

IBM record: 98% accuracy in a 127-qubit system

In June 2023, IBM announced that its IBM Quantum Eagle processor (127 qubits) achieved 98% accuracy in single-qubit operations. This is an impressive result, especially considering it involves a relatively large number of qubits. However, it is worth noting that:

Single-qubit operations are relatively simple compared to the complex calculations that could have practical applications.
The accuracy applies only to quantum gates, not the entire computational process.
IBM itself admits that the scale and complexity of problems that can be solved with such accuracy remain limited.

Google breaks the record: 99.9% accuracy, but only for 53 qubits

In March 2024, the Google Quantum AI team reported achieving 99.9% accuracy in two-qubit operations on their Sycamore processor. This result is better than IBM's, but it involves a significantly smaller number of qubits. Furthermore:

Two-qubit operations are more complex than single-qubit ones, but they are still far from complex quantum algorithms.
Google did not provide information on coherence time or the scalability of their solution.
The study was published in Physical Review Letters, which confirms its credibility, but does not mean the technology is ready for mass deployment.

Quantinuum breaks another record: 99.99% accuracy thanks to error correction

The most impressive achievement comes from Quantinuum, which announced in April 2024 a 99.99% accuracy for operations on 10 qubits. Moreover, they achieved this through quantum error correction, which is a key step toward building fault-tolerant quantum computers. However:

This system relies on logical qubits, which are significantly more stable than physical ones, but their number remains small.
Error correction is a technology still in the research and development phase – its scalability remains a challenge.
The study was conducted in collaboration with the University of Oxford and MIT, which increases its credibility.

What technologies are behind these achievements?

Progress in the field of quantum computing is not a matter of chance. Behind each of these records are specific technologies and methods that enable increasing accuracy and stability of quantum systems.

Qubit architectures: different approaches, different challenges

Currently, there are several main approaches to building qubits on the market:

Superconducting qubits (IBM, Google): Utilize the phenomenon of superconductivity and operate at temperatures near absolute zero. They are relatively easy to manufacture but sensitive to electromagnetic interference.
Ion qubits (Quantinuum, ionq): Based on trapped ions held in an electromagnetic field. They are characterized by longer coherence times, but their production and control are more complex.
Topological qubits (Microsoft): Their advantage is intended to be natural resistance to interference, but this technology is still at a very early stage of development.

Error correction: the key to scalability

One of the biggest challenges in building quantum computers is error correction. Qubits are extremely sensitive to external interference, which leads to computational errors. Several methods are currently in use:

Surface code: IBM is working on this technology, which is intended to enable the construction of fault-tolerant quantum computers. However, it requires thousands of physical qubits to create a single logical qubit.
Logical qubits (Quantinuum): The Quantinuum approach uses many physical qubits to create one stable logical qubit. This allowed for record-breaking accuracy, but it remains a costly and difficult-to-scale solution.
Quantum error correction (QEC): This is a general term for methods aimed at detecting and correcting errors in real-time. However, they remain in the experimental phase.

Quantum algorithms: from simple operations to complex calculations

Achievements to date mainly concern quantum gates – basic operations that are the equivalent of classical logic operations. However, the real power of quantum computers lies in their ability to execute complex quantum algorithms, such as:

Shor's algorithm: Allows for the fast factorization of large numbers, which threatens current cryptographic systems (RSA, ECC). However, it requires thousands of stable qubits.
Grover's algorithm: Accelerates searching in unsorted databases, which could have applications in data analysis.
Quantum simulations: Allow for the modeling of physical and chemical phenomena, e.g., molecular interactions in drugs.

Currently, however, none of these algorithms have been implemented in practice on a large scale. All records concern only basic operations, which represent just the first step toward the full power of quantum computing.

Who is behind these achievements? Credible institutions and their declarations

Progress in the field of quantum computing would not be possible without collaboration between research centers, corporations, and government laboratories. Here are the most important players and their roles in recent achievements:

Technology companies: IBM, Google, Quantinuum

IBM Quantum: One of the most advanced companies in the field of quantum computing. Their processors are available in the cloud (IBM Quantum Experience), which allows scientists to test quantum algorithms. The 98% accuracy record was achieved on the 127-qubit IBM Quantum Eagle processor.
Google Quantum AI: The Google team has been conducting research on quantum computers for years and announced, among other things, quantum supremacy in 2019 (though this was later met with controversy). Their latest achievement – 99.9% accuracy in two-qubit operations – was published in Physical Review Letters.
Quantinuum: A company formed by the merger of Honeywell Quantum Solutions and Cambridge Quantum. Their 99.99% accuracy achievement with error correction was verified through collaboration with the University of Oxford and MIT.

Universities and research institutes

MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology): Conducts research on quantum algorithms and error correction. Collaborates with companies like Quantinuum.
University of Oxford: Research on quantum physics and quantum technologies, including ion qubits.
University of Maryland: Collaborates with ionq on the development of ion qubits.

Government laboratories and support programs

NIST (National Institute of Standards and Technology, USA): Responsible for the standardization of post-quantum cryptography and monitors progress in the field of quantum computing. In August 2023, it published the first standards for algorithms resistant to quantum attacks.
EU (European Quantum Program): Invests billions of euros in quantum technology research, including through the Quantum Flagship program.
China (e.g., Chinese Academy of Sciences): Conducts intensive research on quantum computers, although their achievements are often less transparent than those announced by Western companies.

Implications for cryptography: a threat or a necessity to prepare for change?

One of the biggest fears associated with the development of quantum computers is their potential impact on cryptography. Current encryption systems, such as RSA or ECC, rely on mathematical problems that are difficult for classical computers to solve but relatively simple for quantum computers. What does this mean in practice?

Which algorithms are at risk?

Quantum computers could break the following encryption systems:

RSA: Used in banking, e-commerce, and communication. Threatened by Shor's algorithm.
ECC (Elliptic Curve Cryptography): Used in blockchain (e.g., Bitcoin) and mobile communication. Also threatened by Shor's algorithm.
Diffie-Hellman: Used in the TLS protocol (website encryption).

Post-quantum cryptography: ready solutions or still in the testing phase?

Fortunately, scientists have long been working on post-quantum cryptography – algorithms that are resistant to attacks from quantum computers. In August 2023, NIST published the first standards for such algorithms:

CRYSTALS-Kyber: Public-key encryption algorithm.
CRYSTALS-Dilithium: Digital signature algorithm.
SPHINCS+: Alternative digital signature algorithm.

These algorithms are already ready for deployment, but their implementation takes time. Experts estimate that:

Industry should begin preparations for migration to post-quantum cryptography within the next 5–10 years.
The first security systems may start using new algorithms as early as 2025–2027.
A full replacement of cryptographic infrastructure (e.g., in banks or governments) may take as long as 10–15 years.

Do current quantum computers pose a real threat?

Despite record-breaking achievements, current quantum computers are not yet capable of breaking any popular encryption systems. Why?

Number of qubits: Breaking RSA-2048 (used in most systems) would require at least 4,000 stable qubits. Currently, the largest systems have about 1,000 qubits, but their accuracy and stability are too low.
Error correction: Even if we had a sufficient number of qubits, effective error correction would be necessary, which currently does not exist on a mass scale.
Calculation time: Shor's algorithm requires many repetitions of calculations, which increases the time needed to break a cipher.

Experts from NIST and Google Quantum AI agree: current quantum computers do not pose a real threat to cryptography. However, progress in the accuracy and stability of systems could accelerate the arrival of the era of quantum computers capable of such attacks.

Main challenges: why are quantum computers not yet widely available?

Despite immense progress, building practical quantum computers still faces enormous difficulties. Here are the biggest challenges scientists and engineers are struggling with:

Problem 1: Number of qubits vs. their stability

The more qubits there are, the harder it is to maintain their stability and accuracy. Currently, there are three main approaches to building qubits:

Superconducting qubits (IBM, Google): Easy to produce, but sensitive to interference. The number of qubits is growing (the current record is 1,121 qubits in the IBM Condor processor), but their accuracy drops as the number increases.
Ion qubits (Quantinuum, ionq): Characterized by longer coherence times, but their production and control are more complex. Currently, systems of up to 32 qubits are available.
Topological qubits (Microsoft): Have a theoretical advantage in stability, but this technology is still in the research phase.

The problem is that every additional qubit increases the risk of error. Without effective error correction, increasing the number of qubits does not lead to an increase in computing power.

Problem 2: Coherence time – why do qubits lose their power?

Qubits are extremely sensitive to external interference, such as:

Temperature (most qubits operate at temperatures near 0 Kelvin, or -273°C).
Electromagnetic fields.
Mechanical vibrations.
Cosmic radiation.

Coherence time (the time a qubit maintains its quantum state) is currently between a few microseconds and a few milliseconds. This is too short to perform complex calculations. For a quantum computer to be practical, the coherence time would need to be at least several seconds.

Problem 3: Error correction – a milestone that is still out of reach

Error correction is one of the biggest challenges in building quantum computers. Several approaches are currently in use:

Surface code: Requires thousands of physical qubits to create one logical qubit. This significantly increases the costs and complexity of the system.
Stabilizer codes: Used by Quantinuum, among others, but still in the experimental phase.
Quantum repeaters: A technology that would enable the construction of quantum networks, but it remains in the laboratory phase.

According to experts from the University of Oxford, for error correction to be effective, 1,000 physical qubits per one logical qubit would be needed. We are currently far from such a scale.

Problem 4: Production costs and cooling

Building a quantum computer is a massive engineering and financial challenge:

Cooling: Most quantum computers require extremely low temperatures, which necessitates expensive cryogenic systems. The IBM Quantum System Two (the latest IBM quantum supercomputer) costs about $100 million, mainly due to cooling systems.
Production precision: Qubits must be manufactured with near-perfect accuracy. Even the smallest imperfections in production can lead to calculation errors.
Energy consumption: Quantum computers consume huge amounts of energy, mainly for cooling and controlling qubits.

Problem 5: Scalability – how to build a quantum computer capable of practical applications?

Current quantum computers are only able to perform the simplest calculations. For them to have practical applications, they would need to:

Possess at least 10,000–100,000 stable qubits.
Maintain a long coherence time (several seconds).
Possess effective error correction.
Be cheap and reliable enough to reach a wider audience.

Experts estimate that achieving such parameters will take at least 10–15 years. Until then, quantum computers will mainly be used in scientific research and specialized calculations.

Independent verifications: are these achievements really that revolutionary?

In the field of quantum technology, there is no shortage of hyperbole and unconfirmed reports. That is why it is so important to check which achievements have been verified by independent institutions and published in peer-reviewed scientific journals.

Peer-reviewed publications vs. press releases

Some companies (e.g., IBM, Google, Quantinuum) publish their achievements in serious scientific journals such as Nature, Science, or Physical Review Letters. This ensures that the results have been subjected to rigorous verification by other experts. Here are the most important publications from the last 12 months:

IBM Quantum Eagle (June 2023): Results published in Nature regarding 98% accuracy in single-qubit operations.
Google Sycamore (March 2024): Publication in Physical Review Letters on 99.9% accuracy in two-qubit operations.
Quantinuum (April 2024): Study published in collaboration with the University of Oxford and MIT regarding 99.99% accuracy with error correction.

On the other hand, many companies announce their achievements in the form of press releases that have not yet been verified by independent experts. An example is the company ionq, which in April 2024 announced a "breakthrough" in the field of ion qubits, but without a publication in a peer-reviewed journal.

Are these achievements really revolutionary?

The answer is: it depends on the perspective.

For scientists: Accuracy records are an important step toward building practical quantum computers. They show that the technology is developing faster than expected.
For industry: Current achievements are promising but still too far from practical applications to speak of a "revolution."
For the media: Records are a catchy topic, which leads to overinterpretation of their significance.

According to Dr. Krysta M. Svore from Microsoft Quantum:

"We are at a stage where every 0.1% improvement in accuracy is a huge effort. This is not a revolution, but an evolution – and a very necessary one."

The future of quantum computers: when will the "true breakthrough" arrive?

The question of when quantum computers will change the world intrigues both scientists and investors. Experts agree: today's achievements are milestones, but the road to practical applications is still long. What are the forecasts for the coming years?

Expert reports and forecasts

McKinsey & Company (2024): According to the Quantum Technology Monitor 2024 report, the first practical quantum computers with limited applications could appear in the years 2025–2027. These will mainly be devices for chemical simulations and industrial process optimization.
Boston Consulting Group (2023): Estimates that by 2030, quantum computers will have a significant impact on industries such as pharmaceuticals, logistics, and finance. However, their impact on everyday life will be limited.
Stanford University (2024): According to Stanford researchers, by 2035, quantum computers will be able to perform calculations that are currently impossible for classical supercomputers. However, this will mainly apply to specialized tasks.

Three scenarios for the development of the situation

Experts distinguish three possible scenarios for the development of quantum technologies in the next decade:

Optimistic scenario (20–30% chance)

By 2028, effective quantum error correction will be developed.
The first practical quantum computers (with several thousand stable qubits) will appear in the years 2029–2031.
Quantum computers will be used in molecular simulations (e.g., drug design) and supply chain optimization.
Post-quantum cryptography will become the standard in security-sensitive industries.

Realistic scenario (50–60% chance)

By 2035, quantum computers with 10,000–100,000 qubits will be created, but their use will still be limited to scientific research and specialized calculations.
Quantum computers will not be widely available to the average user, but will be used by large corporations and scientific institutions.
Post-quantum cryptography will become the standard, but classical encryption systems will continue to be used where there is no real threat.

Pessimistic scenario (10–20% chance)

Progress in building quantum computers will slow down due to technical and financial difficulties.
By 2035, quantum computers will still have limited applications, mainly in basic research.
Post-quantum cryptography will not become the standard, and the threat from quantum computers will remain theoretical.

What is the biggest milestone that must be achieved?

For quantum computers to become a practical tool, several key milestones must be reached:

1,000 stable qubits: This is what is needed to perform the first practical calculations, e.g., molecular simulations.
Effective error correction: Without it, increasing the number of qubits does not lead to an increase in computing power.
Long coherence time: Several seconds of coherence time would allow for the execution of complex algorithms.
Cost reduction: Current quantum computers cost hundreds of millions of dollars. To reach a wider audience, the price would have to drop to a few million.

According to Prof. John Martinis (former head of Google Quantum AI):

"The biggest challenge is not the development of qubits themselves, but their scaling. Without effective error correction, there is no point in talking about quantum computers with thousands of qubits."

Summary: what do we really know about the state of quantum technologies?

The last 12 months have brought impressive progress in the field of quantum computing. The accuracy records announced by IBM, Google, and Quantinuum are important steps toward building practical devices. However, their significance must be considered in the context of their actual utility.

Here are the most important conclusions from recent achievements:

Progress is real, but it represents evolution, not revolution.
Records mainly concern simple operation accuracy, not complex calculations.
The key challenge remains error correction, coherence time, and scalability.
Post-quantum cryptography is already ready, but its implementation will take years.
The first practical applications of quantum computers may appear in the years 2025–2030, but their impact on everyday life will be limited.

Quantum computers are no longer science fiction, but they remain in the research phase. Their development is a long-term process that requires collaboration between science, industry, and governments. However, every new accuracy record brings us closer to the day when quantum computers will change the world in ways we cannot even imagine today.

Is it worth investing in quantum technologies right now?

Investments in quantum technologies are growing at an alarming rate. According to a PitchBook report, global investments in quantum start-ups grew by 300% between 2020 and 2024. Is it worth joining this wave?

Here are some arguments for and against investing in quantum technologies:

Arguments FOR

Competitive advantage: Companies that start using quantum computers early will have an advantage in fields such as pharmaceuticals, logistics, or finance.
Stock value growth: Companies like IBM, Google, or IonQ have seen stock growth related to progress in the field of quantum computing.
Government support: Many countries (USA, EU, China) are investing billions in the development of quantum technologies, which increases their chances of success.
Long-term potential: Quantum computers could revolutionize many industries, from medicine to AI.

Arguments AGAINST

High risk: The technology is still in an early stage of development, and its commercialization may take years.
Costs: Investments in research and development are huge, and the return on investment is not guaranteed.
Lack of clear applications: Currently, it is difficult to point to specific industries that will be able to benefit from quantum computers in the coming years.
Competition: The quantum technology market is dominated by a few companies (IBM, Google, Quantinuum), which makes it difficult for new players to enter.

In summary, investing in quantum technologies is high risk, but also high potential return. For investors with a long-term vision, this can be a profitable strategy, but one should remain cautious and diversify the portfolio.

What can we expect in the coming years?

If the trends in quantum technology development continue, we can expect the following changes in the coming years:

2024–2025: Further accuracy records, first implementations of post-quantum cryptography in sensitive industries (banking, military).
2025–2027: First practical quantum computers with a limited number of qubits, used mainly in scientific research.
2027–2030: Quantum computers with 1,000–10,000 qubits, used in chemical simulations, industrial process optimization, and data analysis.
2030–2035: First commercial applications of quantum computers, e.g., in drug design, financial risk management, or AI.
After 2035: Quantum computers will become a standard tool in many industries, although their impact on everyday life will remain limited.

How to prepare for the arrival of the quantum era?

Regardless of when quantum computers change the world, it is worth preparing for this revolution now. Here are a few steps that can help:

For enterprises

Start implementing post-quantum cryptography: Even if quantum computers do not currently pose a threat, migrating to new encryption algorithms can take years. It is better to start sooner rather than later.
Monitor progress in quantum technologies: Follow the achievements of companies like IBM, Google, or Quantinuum to stay up to date with the latest news.
Invest in employee education: Knowledge about quantum computers and their applications will become increasingly valuable.
Explore collaboration opportunities with research centers: Many universities and institutes offer collaboration programs with companies interested in quantum technologies.

For scientists and engineers

Become an expert in quantum algorithms: The ability to program quantum computers (e.g., in IBM's Qiskit or Google's Cirq) will become increasingly valuable.
Work on error correction: This is one of the biggest challenges in building quantum computers – every step forward in this field will be of huge significance.
Explore quantum applications in your field: Quantum computers could have applications in chemistry, physics, biology, finance, and many other fields.

For technology enthusiasts

Follow the latest achievements: Read scientific publications, attend conferences, and take online courses on quantum technologies.
Experiment with quantum simulators: Companies like IBM and Google offer access to their quantum computers in the cloud (e.g., via IBM Quantum Experience or Google Quantum AI).
Be skeptical of hyperbole: Not all press reports about "breakthroughs" in the field of quantum technology are true. Check their credibility in peer-reviewed publications.