AI in the EU labor market: Which jobs will disappear and which will emerge by 2030?

MarGib July 10, 2026

🌐 🇵🇱 Polski · 🇬🇧 EN

The OpenAI report from June 2024 sheds new light on the future of the EU labor market. Which professions are most at risk of automation, and which will gain in importance? We will examine the data, forecasts, and concrete actions that can help employees and companies prepare for the coming changes.

Ilustracja przedstawiająca futurystyczne miasto w UE, gdzie AI wspiera pracę w biurach, fabrykach i usługach, symbolizując zmiany na rynku pracy. — Source: Visualization of the concept of AI's impact on the EU labor market.

Introduction: Why is the OpenAI report important?

Artificial intelligence is no longer a futuristic vision – it is a reality changing the labor market before our eyes. The OpenAI report "Mapping The AI Occupation Transition in The European Union" (June 2024) is one of the most detailed studies on the impact of AI on employment in the EU. The analysis is based on data from ESCO (the EU classification of occupations), Eurostat, and the GPT-4 model, which assessed which tasks in specific professions can be automated or enhanced by AI.

Why should you be interested in this? Because while AI will create millions of new jobs, just as many professions may disappear – especially those based on routine, repetitive tasks. In this article, we will examine which sectors and professions are most at risk, what new roles will emerge, and what actions the EU and Poland are taking to prepare for these changes.

Which professions are most at risk?

The OpenAI report indicates that by 2030, up to 14% of jobs in the EU may disappear or undergo significant transformation. The greatest risk concerns sectors where routine tasks and low-creativity work dominate.

Sectors and professions most exposed to automation

Administration and office:
- Accountants (40–60% of tasks can be automated).
- Office assistants (50% of tasks, e.g., scheduling meetings, handling correspondence).
- Customer service specialists (30–45% of tasks, especially in call centers).
Manufacturing and logistics:
- Quality control workers (30–50% of tasks).
- Warehouse workers (40% of tasks related to inventory management).
Retail:
- Cashiers and sales staff (25–45% of tasks).
- E-commerce support staff (automation of order processes).

It is worth noting that differences between EU countries are significant. In countries with a developed service sector (e.g., Luxembourg, Belgium, the Netherlands), exposure to automation is higher (50–60% of jobs). Conversely, in countries with strong manufacturing sectors (e.g., Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary), the risk mainly concerns manual labor in production (30–40% of jobs).

Does this mean the end of these professions?

Not necessarily. The OpenAI report emphasizes that AI will not so much replace workers as change the nature of their work. For example, an accountant will not disappear, but their role may evolve toward data analysis and strategic consulting, while routine tasks (e.g., data entry) will be taken over by AI. Similarly, in retail, cashiers could become "customer advisors," using AI tools to personalize offers.

You can read more about how AI is changing daily work tasks in the article: AI agents at work: How will they change the daily tasks of programmers and office workers in 2024–2026?.

Which professions will gain in importance?

Although AI eliminates some roles, it simultaneously creates new opportunities. According to the OpenAI report and analyses by McKinsey and the WEF, by 2030, 1.2–1.5 million new jobs directly related to AI will be created in the EU. The largest growth will be seen in technical and hybrid professions that combine digital competencies with soft skills.

Professions with the highest growth potential

AI/ML Engineers:
- Projected employment growth: 75% by 2030 (source: Eurostat 2023).
- Shortage of specialists in the EU: 250,000 by 2027 (EC "Digital Decade" 2023).
Data Scientists:
- Key skills: data analysis, predictive modeling, visualization.
- Example: In the financial sector, employment of Data Scientists will grow by 15% by 2025 (EFPA Europe 2023).
AI Ethics Specialists:
- New roles related to regulations (e.g., the AI Act) and responsible AI implementation.
- Employment growth: 200% between 2022–2024 (LinkedIn "Emerging Jobs Report" 2023).
Hybrid professions:
- AI-assisted physicians: Medical imaging, patient data analysis (growth of 30% by 2030, WHO Europe 2023).
- AI-enabled teachers: Personalized learning, automated grading (growth of 40% in Scandinavian countries, OECD 2023).

Sectors with the largest investments in AI

Healthcare:
- EU investments: 1.5 billion EUR between 2021–2027 (Horizon Europe).
- Examples of applications: disease diagnosis, patient data management, surgical robotics.
Finance:
- Automation of risk analysis, customer service (chatbots), fraud detection.
- Employment growth in the sector: 15% by 2025 (EFPA Europe 2023).
Education:
- Personalized learning, automated grading, virtual educational assistants.
- Example: Finland – the free "Elements of AI" course has been completed by 1 million people in the EU.

How is the EU preparing for the AI revolution?

The European Union is not remaining passive regarding changes in the labor market. It is implementing a series of initiatives designed to help employees and companies adapt to the new reality. Here are the most important ones:

Training and educational programs

Digital Europe Programme (2021–2027):
- Budget: 7.5 billion EUR, including 1.5 billion EUR for AI and cybersecurity training.
- Example: The AI4EU platform offering courses for companies and universities.
European Skills Agenda (2020):
- Goal: 60% of adults in the EU to participate in digital training by 2030 (status in 2023: 46%).
- Pact for Skills initiative: Public-private partnerships (e.g., with Siemens, SAP) training employees in AI.
National examples:
- Finland: Free "Elements of AI" course (since 2018).
- Germany: "AI Innovation Competition" program (budget 3 billion EUR by 2025).
- Poland: "Polish Deal 4.0" (since 2022, grants for AI training for SMEs, budget 500 million PLN).

EU funds supporting AI

Horizon Europe (2021–2027):
- Budget: 95.5 billion EUR, of which 15% is for AI research (e.g., TAILOR, HumanE-AI-Net projects).
European Social Fund+ (ESF+):
- Budget: 99.3 billion EUR for vocational training, including digital competencies.

Legal regulations: The AI Act

In March 2024, the EU adopted the AI Act – the world's first comprehensive law regulating the development and use of artificial intelligence. Although its goal is to ensure safety and ethics, it may also affect the pace of AI implementation in companies.

Key assumptions of the AI Act:

Classification of AI systems by risk level (prohibited, high, limited, minimal).
Transparency requirements (e.g., informing users when they are interacting with AI).
Supervision of high-risk systems (e.g., in medicine, transport).

You can read more about safety and procedures related to AI in the article: Safety procedures against modern threats – analysis and recommendations.

Barriers to AI workforce development in the EU

Despite ambitious plans, the EU faces a series of challenges that may slow down the development of AI competencies among employees. Here are the most important ones:

1. Talent shortage

In 2023, the EU was short of 400,000 IT specialists (EC "Digital Economy and Society Index" 2023).
In Poland, the deficit is 50,000 AI/ML specialists (KIG IT report 2023).

2. Regional disparities

In Western EU (Germany, France, Scandinavian countries), 70% of companies have access to AI specialists.
In Central and Eastern Europe (Poland, Hungary, Romania) – only 30% of companies (McKinsey 2024).

3. Legal regulations

The AI Act may slow down AI adoption in SMEs due to transparency and ethics requirements.
GDPR limits the use of data for training AI models (e.g., Italy banned ChatGPT in March 2023).

4. Technological infrastructure

5G: Only 56% of the EU population has access to 5G networks (as of 2023, EC "Digital Decade" 2023).
Supercomputers: The EU has 3 of the 10 most powerful supercomputers in the world (EuroHPC 2023), but access for companies is limited.

EU vs. USA, China, and the UK: Who is winning the AI race?

The European Union is trying to keep up with the leaders in AI – the USA and China. How does it compare to them? Here is a comparison of key indicators:

Criterion	EU	USA	China	UK
AI investments (2023)	22 billion EUR	50 billion USD	38 billion USD	10 billion GBP
Number of AI specialists (2023)	1.3 million	2.1 million	1.8 million	0.5 million
AI patents (2022)	12% globally	35% globally	40% globally	5% globally
AI policy	AI Act (2024) – regulation	No uniform regulation	State-led (2023)	UK AI Strategy (2021) – flexibility
AI employment growth (by 2030)	+12% annually	+15% annually	+20% annually	+10% annually

EU weaknesses

Market fragmentation: 27 different education and regulatory systems.
Lower private investment: In the USA, 70% of AI investment comes from the private sector; in the EU, it is 40% (McKinsey 2024).
Slower adoption pace: Companies in the USA and China adapt new technologies faster.

EU strengths

Ethical regulations: The AI Act could become a global standard.
Public funds: The EU invests significant resources in research and training.
Regional balance: Programs like the Digital Europe Programme support countries with less potential.

What can Poland do to seize AI opportunities?

Poland has the potential to become a leader in AI in Central and Eastern Europe. Here are concrete steps that companies, public institutions, and employees can take:

For companies

Case study: Allegro:
- Since 2021, it has been using AI for product recommendations and logistics optimization.
- Employment: 200+ AI specialists.
Tools and grants:
- Polish platforms: Sages (AI training), Tooploox (ML model development).
- Grants: PARP ("Innovation Voucher", "Go to Brand" programs).
Cooperation with universities:
- Example: Warsaw University of Technology – dual programs with PKO BP, Orange.

For public institutions

Infrastructure development:
- Construction of an AI Competence Center (planned for 2025, budget 300 million PLN).
Education:
- Introduction of mandatory AI courses in high schools (pilot in 2024 in Warsaw and Krakow).

For employees

Training:
- "AI for everyone" courses on the Navoica platform (free).
Certifications:
- Microsoft Certified: Azure AI Engineer.
- Google Professional Machine Learning Engineer.
Reskilling:
- Example: Accountant → Financial Data Analyst.
- Teacher → Digital Education Specialist.

You can read more about how technologies are changing the labor market in Poland in the report from the Sektor 3.0 Festival.

Summary: Are we ready for the AI revolution?

The OpenAI report and other analyses clearly show that artificial intelligence will irreversibly change the labor market in the EU. Some professions will disappear, others will be transformed, and many new ones will emerge. The key question is: Are we prepared for this?

The European Union is taking steps to support employees and companies in adapting to the new reality. Training programs, EU funds, and regulations like the AI Act aim to ensure that AI development is sustainable and beneficial for everyone. However, there are many challenges – from talent shortages to regional disparities and infrastructure barriers.

For Poland, this is an opportunity to catch up and become a leader in AI in the region. Companies that invest in the digital competencies of their employees now will gain a competitive advantage. Employees should treat AI not as a threat, but as a tool that can improve their work and open up new possibilities.

One thing is certain: the AI revolution has already begun. How we prepare for it will determine the future of the labor market in Europe.

If you are interested in the topic of autonomous AI and its impact on the future, read the article: Autonomous AI as a new species: Why are we heading toward the total replacement of humans?.